Poverty in Guatemala

The Guatemala Times recently summarized 2010 poverty data from the country.

Poverty in Guatemala increased from 51% to 54.1% -55%, according to the latest data published by the Central American Business Intelligence, CABI. CABI informed that poverty, infant and maternal mortality have increased in Guatemala due to the global economic crisis between 2009 and 2010. This has severely affected local efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

In their study, CABI reported that the fall in economic growth in Guatemala caused the poverty level to rise from 51 percent to 54.1 percent and in some cases to 55 percent. Among the causes that increased poverty, the agency cited the loss of formal jobs, reduction in real wages (inflation) and bankruptcy of small businesses.

The agency stressed that the annual cost to address maternal and child mortality in Guatemala is not high, it takes only 0.25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). If the investment in health is reduced it will adversely affect progress recorded in the field. The decrease of remittances of 9.3% in 2009 (Bank of Guatemala) had a very negative impact in the fight against poverty in Guatemala, in addition, despite the boost from programs like Social Cohesion, which distributes 300 Quetzals, (approximately US $ 38.4 depending on the exchange rate) per family, poverty has risen since 2007.

While the decline in remittances was one of the causes for the recent increase in poverty figures, there is some grounds for optimism given that Guatemala recorded a 15.1% increase in January 2011 remittances compared to January 2010.

The Bank of Guatemala revealed yesterday that January 2011 showed revenues of $ 283.3 million. Although this amount is higher than January 2010, when revenues where at U.S. $ 246.1 million, it has not yet reached the levels of 2009, revenues of US $ 290.2 million, or U.S. $ 314.6 million of January 2008.

While not as strong as 2009, it is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, it's nowhere near the MDG's 2015 goal of 31.4% and really only returns the country to its 2006 poverty level.

Support for Democracy in El Salvador

Tim linked to a report from El Faro that showed that 45.6% of Salvadorans would support a military coup if the economic and security situations in the country are not resolved. The poll was conducted between November 8 and 13 with 1,200 people and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

That's not great news, of course. The good people at LAPOP carried out surveys in 2008 and 2010 that ask basically the same question. You can find the details in Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2010. 

According to their research, Salvadoran support for a military coup declined from 43.1% in 2008 to 40.9% in 2010. In that case, while it's a pretty high number of Salvadorans who would support a coup, it's down from recent years.

In another series of questions, Salvadorans were asked “Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with these statements?”Support has bounced around a bit over the last six years from 68.8% in 2004 to 61.3% in 2006, back up to 68.4% in 2008, and finally settling at 64.1% in 2010.

On the one hand, citizen support for democracy is pretty low, especially compared to other countries in the region, and support for a military coup is still alarmingly high. On the other hand, the survey results do show that support for democracy is higher today than it has been in the recent past.

LAPOP's 2010 data was collected in February 2010, eight months before the new survey reported in El Faro. You can't directly compare the two surveys so I don't want to draw any strong conclusions about trends in support for democracy  between February (LAPOP) and November (EL Faro). We're just going to have to wait a bit until we get additional survey data.

Clinton Meets with Guatemala Foreign Minister

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently met with her Guatemala counterpart, Haroldo Rodas, in Washington, D.C. The video really just has your basic diplomatic pleasantries.


However, in the write-up of the meeting, Rodas reiterated the Guatemalan government's request that the US extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS) benefits to its citizens living here in the US. In recent years, TPS has been extended to citizens of El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Haiti. Several months have passed since Guatemala petitioned for TPS, providing all the necessary documentation to justify its request.

As time goes on, it becomes harder to see the US extending TPS to Guatemala. They requested it in June and nothing. There was no earthquake (Haiti and El Salvador). There was no single storm like Hurricane Mitch (Nicaragua and Honduras). Unfortunately, I think that this makes it difficult for decisionmakers to quite get a handle on the effects of several smaller disasters - tropical storms and volcanic eruptions.